We are into the New Year – 2021. It is almost a year since COVID-19 has changed our world and now vaccination is around the corner. Do we see things going back to the pre-COVID times? Is the fashion industry globally and in India going to get back to pre-Corona times of touch and feel, brick & mortar flagship stores abuzz with shoppers and the fun and frolic around the ramp shows?
These are tough questions and too early to answer. According to McKinsey Global Fashion Index analysis, fashion companies will post approximately a 90 percent decline in economic profit in 2020, after a 4 percent rise in 2019. Given the ongoing uncertainty, McKinsey’s predictions for industry performance next year are focused on two scenarios. The first, more optimistic “Earlier Recovery” scenario envisages that global fashion sales will decline by between 0 and 5 percent in 2021 compared to 2019. This would be predicated on successful virus containment in multiple geographies and a relatively rapid transition to economic recovery. In this scenario, the industry would return to 2019 levels of activity by the third quarter of 2022.
But let’s take are more pragmatic look at the fashion industry in India. We spoke with people at the helm of affairs in the industry the get a clue on what the year 2021 has in store for Indian Fashion. As per Sunil Sethi, the Chairman of Fashion Design Council of India (FDCI), the umbrella body of the designers of India, “At least till the first half of 2021 we are going to be carrying on with Digital Shows. Our Fall/Winter 2021 India Fashion Week scheduled for March this year is going Phy-Gital, a blend of physical and digital showcasing but we are optimistic that the India Couture Week scheduled around July/August in 2021 will be the traditional one with ramp shows and audiences that would be allowed during the times’ standard-operating-procedures.” On probing how the Corona times affected the fashion fraternity, Sethi said, “It was tough on everyone, the entire supply chain on which the fraternity depends and even on fashion consumers.” He added, “Tough decisions were taken by designers on relocating their flagship stores from luxury mall to comparatively less expensive real-estate. Some shut-down stores. Most designers reorganized their retail on E-commerce platforms. Discount sales on stock were disturbing many.” But Sunil Sethi has an optimistic vision and says that the wedding wear business was the least affected amongst fashion categories.
People celebrated weddings with no compromise on pomp and show and many designers, even those who designed only Pret or contemporary styles transgressed slowly to create their own signature lines of wedding wear.” He surmises by saying, Fashion Weeks are not just about trade and catwalk shows. It’s about being seen in your stylist best, hobnob and network and celebrate and party and we at FDCI believe that the second half of 2021 will have us bringing it back again.”
Rahul Khanna of the designer duo Rohit Gandhi + Rahul Khanna also is brimming with hope and says, “The restart of the new year also calls for cleaning out your one-off, trendy items and investing in luxe, versatile pieces. Creating a capsule wardrobe allows you to focus on worthwhile garments, along with a few experimental items that you may have never considered before. Just because you’re rethinking how you approach your personal style doesn’t mean you can’t stop having fun.” Rahul adds, “Following a tumultuous and introspective year, shoppers are more conscious of how they dress and where they spend as it relates to their personal values. A re-energised focus on sustainable, inclusive, and diverse brands plays a major role in what buying will and should look like in this year.”
The recent Business of Fashion (BoF) report found that 55% of consumers now expect fashion brands to care for the health of employees in times of crisis. It states: “With garment workers, sales assistants and other lower-paid workers operating at the sharp end of the crisis, consumers have become more aware of the plight of vulnerable employees in the fashion value chain. As momentum for change builds alongside campaigns to end exploitation, consumers will expect companies to offer more dignity, security and justice to workers throughout the global industry.”
“This is a time for change. Designers across the globe are interacting with the digital medium to push the boundaries and discover new ways to showcase and curate their collections”, said designer Nitin Bal Chauhan. Being a wee bit prophetic, Nitin added, “This is also a time to reinvent the runway shows and the ways how we conduct the business of fashion. Off-site and off beat thematic presentations followed by slick fashion films shot and edited using the best technology is key. We need to take monotony out of fashion and this could be the best time to do it. Fashion was never so inclusive and will change that forever.”
Physical retail has been in a downward spiral and the number of permanent store closures will continue to rise in the post-pandemic period, compelling fashion players to rethink their retail footprints. Amplified by a potential power shift from landlords to retailers and the need to seamlessly embed digital, designers will need to make tough choices to improve Return on Investment at store level. Prompted by fundamental changes in the way designers worked during the pandemic and the need to drive performance in the years to come, an enduring new model for work is likely to emerge. Brands and Labels should therefore refine their blends of remote and on-premises work, invest in re-skilling talent and instill a greater sense of shared purpose and belonging for employees who continue to reconsider their own priorities.
It may not be hunky-dory now but it is also not a feeling of gloom and doom. In the concluding part we will find out more about the churning going on in the Indian fashion business on factors like – truncated collections, ethical consumption and the inherent need of pomp and show that surrounds the business of fashion. Digital is fine and so are fashion films but there is that need for touch and feel that is so embedded in fashion that one can’t simply ignore it.
Text by Jaydeep Ghosh
Image courtesy – Balmain.com, Pinterest, Instagram